INDIA’S QUIET GEOPOLITICAL BALANCING ACT (2025–26)

Beyond Tariffs: Currency, Conflicts, Corridors & Contradictions

What is happening between India and the United States since Trump’s second term is not a single conflict.
It is a multi-layered geopolitical chessboard, where India is managing:

• Currency wars

• Sanctions pressure

• Middle East conflicts

• Afghanistan’s future

• Technology containment

• Alliance fatigue

—all without shouting, and without burning bridges.

Let’s break this down one by one, clearly.

🟡1. BRICS PAYMENT SYSTEM & NON-USD TRADE

The Quiet Financial Earthquake

What the US wants

The US wants the dollar to remain the world’s default weapon:

• Sanctions enforcement

• SWIFT control

• Financial surveillance

Trump’s worldview is blunt:

“If you trade outside the dollar, you weaken America.”

What India is doing

India is not publicly leading de-dollarisation—but it is participating quietly:

• Local-currency trade with Russia

• BRICS discussions on alternative payment rails

• Support for settlement systems that bypass US choke points

• RBI experimenting without loud announcements

India’s position is subtle:

“We are not attacking the dollar.
We are simply reducing vulnerability.”

This protects India from secondary sanctions without provoking a direct clash.

🔵 2. AFGHANISTAN, TALIBAN & THE AIRFIELD QUESTION

Where India and Trump Directly Diverge

Trump’s interest

Trump has repeatedly signalled interest in:

• Retaining strategic airfields in Afghanistan

• Using them as leverage against China & Iran

This requires Taliban compliance.

India’s approach (very different)

India has taken a pragmatic but principled line:

• No formal recognition of Taliban

• Direct humanitarian engagement

• Support for Afghan strategic autonomy, not foreign military reuse

• Quiet diplomatic channels, not megaphone diplomacy

Why? Because India remembers:

• Foreign bases destabilise Afghanistan

• Destabilised Afghanistan spills into South Asia

India’s position is simple:

Afghanistan should not become anyone’s aircraft carrier.

This directly conflicts with Trump’s tactical instincts, but India manages it without confrontation.

🟢 3. ISRAEL–PALESTINE: WALKING A RAZOR’S EDGE

Supporting Peace Without Picking Sides

Trump’s stance

Trump prefers:

• Hard security guarantees for Israel

• Economic-first peace proposals

• Reduced focus on Palestinian political sovereignty

India’s balancing act

India does something very few countries manage:

• Strategic partnership with Israel (defence, tech)

• Political and humanitarian support for Palestinians

• Backing two-state solution consistently

• Avoiding ideological extremes

India supported elements of Trump’s peace push
—but did not abandon Palestinian legitimacy.

This allows India to:

• Retain credibility in the Arab world

• Maintain trust with Israel

• Avoid moral absolutism

This is conflict management, not fence-sitting.

🟣 4. RUSSIA, SANCTIONS & THE INDIAN OCEAN

Why India Is Uncomfortable—but Unyielding

Trump wants allies to choose clearly:

“With us or against us.”

India refuses that framing.

• Russian energy keeps inflation under control

• Defence platforms are deeply integrated

• Logistics agreements expand reach in the Indian Ocean

India absorbs Western discomfort but calculates:

Energy security + military readiness > optics

This is risk management, not alignment.

🔴 5. CHINA: THE SHADOW PLAYER IN EVERY DECISION

Every US pressure tactic has one unspoken assumption:

India will automatically counter China.

India refuses to be predictable.

• Border talks continue quietly

• Trade is calibrated, not cut

• Military readiness stays high

• Diplomatic doors stay open

India wants deterrence without escalation.

Trump prefers confrontation.
India prefers control.

🔶 WHAT THIS REALLY MEANS (THE BIG PICTURE)

India today is managing multiple contradictions simultaneously:

• Against dollar dominance, but not anti-US

• Against foreign bases, but not isolationist

• With Israel, without abandoning Palestine

• With Russia, without endorsing war

• Talking to China, without trusting it

This is not confusion.

This is mature multipolar diplomacy.

🧠 FINAL TRUTH (WHAT TV DEBATES MISS)

Trump’s worldview is transactional:
pressure → compliance

India’s worldview is civilisational:
balance → stability

India is not resisting America.
It is resisting being boxed.

And that distinction will define global politics in 2026.

Analytics by Vijayakumar Jayabal, 24 Dec 2025